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As the SARS-CoV-2 trajectory continues, the longer-term immuno-epidemiology of COVID-19, the dynamics of Long COVID, and the impact of escape variants are important outstanding questions. We examine these remaining uncertainties with a simple modelling framework that accounts for multiple (antigenic) exposures via infection or vaccination. If immunity (to infection or Long COVID) accumulates rapidly with the valency of exposure, we find that infection levels and the burden of Long COVID are markedly reduced in the medium term. More pessimistic assumptions on host adaptive immune responses illustrate that the longer-term burden of COVID-19 may be elevated for years to come. However, we also find that these outcomes could be mitigated by the eventual introduction of a vaccine eliciting robust (i.e. durable, transmission-blocking and/or ‘evolution-proof’) immunity. Overall, our work stresses the wide range of future scenarios that still remain, the importance of collecting real-world epidemiological data to identify likely outcomes, and the crucial need for the development of a highly effective transmission-blocking, durable and broadly protective vaccine. 

Abstract The absence of microbial exposure early in life leaves individuals vulnerable to immune overreaction later in life, manifesting as immunopathology, autoimmunity, or allergies. A key factor is thought to be a “critical window” during which the host's immune system can “learn” tolerance, and beyond which learning is no longer possible. Animal models indicate that many mechanisms have evolved to enable critical windows, and that their time limits are distinct and consistent. Such a variety of mechanisms, and precision in their manifestation suggest the outcome of strong evolutionary selection. To strengthen our understanding of critical windows, we explore their underlying evolutionary ecology using models encompassing demographic and epidemiological transitions, identifying the length of the critical window that would maximize fitness in different environments. We characterize how direct effects of microbes on host mortality, but also indirect effects via microbial ecology, will drive the optimal length of the critical window. We find that indirect effects such as magnitude of transmission, duration of infection, rates of reinfection, vertical transmission, host demography, and seasonality in transmission all have the effect of redistributing the timing and/or likelihood of encounters with microbial taxa across age, and thus increasing or decreasing the optimal length of the critical window. Declining microbial population abundance and diversity are predicted to result in increases in immune dysfunction later in life. We also make predictions for the length of the critical window across different taxa and environments. Overall, our modeling efforts demonstrate how critical windows will be impacted over evolution as a function of both host-microbiome/pathogen interactions and dispersal, raising central questions about potential mismatches between these evolved systems and the current loss of microbial diversity and/or increases in infectious disease. 

Inferring the relative strength (i.e. the ratio of reproduction numbers) and relative speed (i.e. the difference between growth rates) of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to predicting and controlling the course of the current pandemic. Analyses of new variants have primarily focused on characterizing changes in the proportion of new variants, implicitly or explicitly assuming that the relative speed remains fixed over the course of an invasion. We use a generation-interval-based framework to challenge this assumption and illustrate how relative strength and speed change over time under two idealized interventions: a constant-strength intervention like idealized vaccination or social distancing, which reduces transmission rates by a constant proportion, and a constant-speed intervention like idealized contact tracing, which isolates infected individuals at a constant rate. In general, constant-strength interventions change the relative speed of a new variant, while constant-speed interventions change its relative strength. Differences in the generation-interval distributions between variants can exaggerate these changes and modify the effectiveness of interventions. Finally, neglecting differences in generation-interval distributions can bias estimates of relative strength. 

SARS-CoV-2 is an international public health emergency; high transmissibility and morbidity and mortality can result in the virus overwhelming health systems. Combinations of social distancing, and test, trace, and isolate strategies can reduce the number of new infections per infected individual below 1, thus driving declines in case numbers, but may be both challenging and costly. These interventions must also be maintained until development and (now likely) mass deployment of a vaccine (or therapeutics), since otherwise, many susceptible individuals are still at risk of infection. We use a simple analytical model to explore how low levels of infection, combined with vaccination, determine the trajectory to community immunity. Understanding the repercussions of the biological characteristics of the viral life cycle in this scenario is of considerable importance. We provide a simple description of this process by modelling the scenario where the effective reproduction number R eff is maintained at 1. Since the additional complexity imposed by the strength and duration of transmission-blocking immunity is not yet clear, we use our framework to probe the impact of these uncertainties. Through intuitive analytical relations, we explore how the necessary magnitude of vaccination rates and mitigation efforts depends crucially on the durations of natural and vaccinal immunity. We also show that our framework can encompass seasonality or preexisting immunity due to epidemic dynamics prior to strong mitigation measures. Taken together, our simple conceptual model illustrates the importance of individual and vaccinal immunity for community immunity, and that the quantification of individuals immunized against SARS-CoV-2 is paramount. 

Abstract Microbial communities associated with plant leaf surfaces (i.e., the phyllosphere) are increasingly recognized for their role in plant health. While accumulating evidence suggests a role for host filtering of its microbiota, far less is known about how community composition is shaped by dispersal, including from neighboring plants. We experimentally manipulated the local plant neighborhood within which tomato, pepper, or bean plants were grown in a 3-month field trial. Focal plants were grown in the presence of con- or hetero-specific neighbors (or no neighbors) in a fully factorial combination. At 30-day intervals, focal plants were harvested and replaced with a new age- and species-matched cohort while allowing neighborhood plants to continue growing. Bacterial community profiling revealed that the strength of host filtering effects (i.e., interspecific differences in composition) decreased over time. In contrast, the strength of neighborhood effects increased over time, suggesting dispersal from neighboring plants becomes more important as neighboring plant biomass increases. We next implemented a cross-inoculation study in the greenhouse using inoculum generated from the field plants to directly test host filtering of microbiomes while controlling for directionality and source of dispersal. This experiment further demonstrated that focal host species, the host from which the microbiome came, and in one case the donor hosts’ neighbors, contribute to variation in phyllosphere bacterial composition. Overall, our results suggest that local dispersal is a key factor in phyllosphere assembly, and that demographic factors such as nearby neighbor identity and biomass or age are important determinants of phyllosphere microbiome diversity. 

Abstract The evolution of host immunity occurs in the context of the microbiome, but little theory exists to predict how resistance against pathogens might be influenced by the need to tolerate and regulate commensal microbiota. We present a general model to explore the optimal investment in host immunity under conditions in which the host can, versus cannot easily distinguish among commensal versus pathogenic bacteria, and when commensal microbiota can, versus cannot protect the host against the impacts of pathogen infection. We find that a loss of immune vigilance associated with innate immunity over evolutionary time can occur due to the challenge of discriminating between pathogenic and other microbe species. Further, we find the greater the protective effect of microbiome species, acting either directly or via competition with a pathogen, or the higher the costs of immunity, the more likely the loss of immune vigilance is. Conversely, this effect can be reversed when pathogens increase host mortality. Generally, the magnitude of costs of immunity required to allow evolution of decreased immune vigilance are predicted to be lowest when microbiome and pathogen species most resemble each other (in terms of host recognition), and when immune effects on the pathogen are weak. Our model framework makes explicit the core trade-offs likely to shape the evolution of immunity in the context of microbiome/pathogen discrimination. We discuss how this informs interpretation of patterns and process in natural systems, including vulnerability to pathogen emergence. 

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of ‘vaccine nationalism’, we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic. 

There is increasing interest in the plant microbiome as it relates to both plant health and agricultural sustainability. One key unanswered question is whether we can select for a plant microbiome that is robust after colonization of target hosts. We used a successive passaging experiment to address this question by selecting upon the tomato phyllosphere microbiome. Beginning with a diverse microbial community generated from field-grown tomato plants, we inoculated replicate plants across 5 plant genotypes for 4 45-d passages, sequencing the microbial community at each passage. We observed consistent shifts in both the bacterial (16S amplicon sequencing) and fungal (internal transcribed spacer region amplicon sequencing) communities across replicate lines over time, as well as a general loss of diversity over the course of the experiment, suggesting that much of the naturally observed microbial community in the phyllosphere is likely transient or poorly adapted within the experimental setting. We found that both host genotype and environment shape microbial composition, but the relative importance of genotype declines through time. Furthermore, using a community coalescence experiment, we found that the bacterial community from the end of the experiment was robust to invasion by the starting bacterial community. These results highlight that selecting for a stable microbiome that is well adapted to a particular host environment is indeed possible, emphasizing the great potential of this approach in agriculture and beyond. In light of the consistent response of the microbiome to selection in the absence of reciprocal host evolution (coevolution) described here, future studies should address how such adaptation influences host health.